Tony Windsor has decided to support Labor, but the remaining independent MP Rob Oakeshott is yet to make public his decision.
The decision came after 17 days of protracted negotiation between the independents and the two leaders.
Mr Oakeshott had six separate meetings yesterday with Mr Abbott.
One source said this morning that when Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor met Mr Abbott last night, the Coalition leader offered them ''everything'''.
The stakes were raised earlier this afternoon when Queensland independent Bob Katter called a press conference to declare his hand before his two independent colleagues, both from NSW.
Mr Katter announced he was backing the Coalition to form a minority government, and indicated his decision would have been different had Kevin Rudd still been Labor leader.
The trio met Ms Gillard and Mr Abbott this morning before they announced their decision.
Mr Oakeshott described the task of anointing a government as a ''wicked problem''.
Mr Windsor said both leaders had been excellent in their dealings with the independents.
''They both want the job - there is no doubt about that,'' he said.
Throughout the entire process, the men never once stated a positive reason as to why they would choose the Coalition. This seeded a deep pessimism within the Liberal and National Parties.
On Monday , at the 11th hour, they also raised the uncertain status of Tony Crook, the breakaway WA national who had refused to support the Coalition in a minority government unless his demands were met.
The independents had also held out until both parties agreed to a major reforms to the parliament. The Coalition had refused to agree to three points on Sunday but rolled over on Monday as negotiations intensified.
Last night, the Coalition secured the critical support of Mr Crook after the trio said without him, the Coalition did not have the numbers to form government.
In a bombshell on the eve of today's expected decision by the three independents, they declared Mr Crook had asked for $860 million a year for Western Australia's regions, no mining tax, and a rewrite of the GST funding formula so WA receives more revenue.
But after the independents sounded their warning, Mr Crook crumbled in response to an appeal from the Nationals federal leader, Warren Truss, and severely weakened his bargaining position.
''I will support the Coalition to form a minority government,'' he said.
''But I would like to make it clear that there has been no commitment or agreement on our key policy, therefore I will be on the cross benches until that policy is met.''
The Crook situation was the last hurdle to be cleared before the independents announce their respective decisions.
Mr Crook's spokeswoman confirmed that his guaranteed support to form minority government is a promise to support the Coalition against all reckless no-confidence motions and to guarantee supply, thus ensuring it stays in power for three years.
The Tasmanian independent, Andrew Wilkie, has given Labor the same commitment, as has the Greens MP Adam Bandt. Unlike Mr Crook, however, both secured payoffs in return.
Coalition sources regarded the last-minute demand by the three independents as a further sign that the trio was preparing reasons to support Ms Gillard.
Mr Oakeshott gave further grist to the theory by saying the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate was a strong influence to support Labor, given Labor and the Greens work well together.
''That is a pragmatic reality we all have to get used to, like it or not,'' he said.
But Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor teased that they could still back the Coalition.
Asked whether their late concern about Mr Crook showed they were still contemplating voting for the Coalition, they did not give a direct answer.
Labor's national broadband network was one of the "main influences" for Tony Windor's backing of the Labor party, the independent MP said today.
"To pass up that opportunity and miss it for the millions of country Australians I thought was too good an opportunity to miss," he said at a packed media conference in Canberra.
"That’s been one of the main influences I’ve had in making a decision."
He said that there were many broadband technologies available, but fibre was one of the best.
"Do it once, do it right and do it with fibre," he said.
"One of the key issues in my mind is that of many country Australians."
Phillip Coorey is the chief political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald.
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